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Organization Notes
Get Started with Algorithm Lab
New Research
Optimizing a Gold-SPY Portfolio Using Hidden Markov Models for Market Downtime
Gold-SPY portfolio optimization using Hidden Markov Models for minimizing market downturn risk....
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Datasets >
US Treasury Yield Curve
Dataset by Treasury Department
The US Treasury Yield Curve datasets tracks the yield curve rate from the US Department of the Treasury. The data starts in January 1990 and is delivered on a daily frequency. This dataset is calculated from composites of indicative, bid-side market quotations (not actual transactions) obtained by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at or near 3:30 PM Eastern Time (ET) each trading day.
The Treasury Department is the executive agency responsible for promoting economic prosperity and ensuring the financial security of the United States. The Department is responsible for a wide range of activities such as advising the President on economic and financial issues, encouraging sustainable economic growth, and fostering improved governance in financial institutions. The Department of the Treasury operates and maintains systems that are critical to the nation's financial infrastructure, such as the production of coin and currency, the disbursement of payments to the American public, revenue collection, and the borrowing of funds necessary to run the federal government.
The following snippet demonstrates how to request data from the US Treasury Yield Curve dataset:
self.dataset_symbol = self.add_data(USTreasuryYieldCurveRate, "USTYCR").symbol
_datasetSymbol = AddData<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>("USTYCR").Symbol;
The following table describes the dataset properties:
Property | Value |
---|---|
Start Date | January 1990 |
Coverage | 1 Dataset |
Data Density | Sparse |
Resolution | Daily |
Timezone | New York |
The US Treasury Yield Curve dataset enables you to monitor the yields of bonds with numerous maturities in your strategies. Examples include the following strategies:
For more example algorithms, see Examples.
The US Treasury Yield Curve dataset provides USTreasuryYieldCurveRate objects, which have the following attributes:
To add US Treasury Yield Curve data to your algorithm, call the AddDataadd_data method. Save a reference to the dataset Symbol so you can access the data later in your algorithm.
class QuiverCongressDataAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def initialize(self) -> None:
self.set_start_date(2019, 1, 1)
self.set_end_date(2020, 6, 1)
self.set_cash(100000)
self.dataset_symbol = self.add_data(USTreasuryYieldCurveRate, "USTYCR").symbol
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.AltData
{
public class USTreasuryYieldCurveDataAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
private Symbol _datasetSymbol;
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2019, 1, 1);
SetEndDate(2020, 6, 1);
SetCash(100000);
_datasetSymbol = AddData<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>("USTYCR").Symbol;
}
}
}
To get the current US Treasury Yield Curve data, index the current Slice with the dataset Symbol. Slice objects deliver unique events to your algorithm as they happen, but the Slice may not contain data for your dataset at every time step. To avoid issues, check if the Slice contains the data you want before you index it.
def on_data(self, slice: Slice) -> None:
if slice.contains_key(self.dataset_symbol):
data_point = slice[self.dataset_symbol]
self.log(f"{self.dataset_symbol} one month value at {slice.time}: {data_point.one_month}")
public override void OnData(Slice slice)
{
if (slice.ContainsKey(_datasetSymbol))
{
var dataPoint = slice[_datasetSymbol];
Log($"{_datasetSymbol} one month value at {slice.Time}: {dataPoint.OneMonth}");
}
}
To get historical US Treasury Yield Curve data, call the Historyhistory method with the dataset Symbol. If there is no data in the period you request, the history result is empty.
# DataFrame
history_df = self.history(self.dataset_symbol, 100, Resolution.DAILY)
# Dataset objects
history_bars = self.history[USTreasuryYieldCurveRate](self.dataset_symbol, 100, Resolution.DAILY)
var history = History<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>(_datasetSymbol, 100, Resolution.Daily);
For more information about historical data, see History Requests.
To remove your subscription to US Treasury Yield Curve data, call the RemoveSecurityremove_security method.
self.remove_security(self.dataset_symbol)
RemoveSecurity(_datasetSymbol);
The US Treasury Yield Curve dataset provides USTreasuryYieldCurveRate objects, which have the following attributes:
The following example algorithm short sells SPY for two years when the yield curve inverts:
from AlgorithmImports import *
from QuantConnect.DataSource import *
class USTreasuryDataAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def initialize(self) -> None:
self.set_start_date(2000, 3, 1)
self.set_end_date(2021, 6, 1)
self.set_cash(100000)
# Request SPY as the market representative for trading
self.spy_symbol = self.add_equity("SPY", Resolution.HOUR).symbol
# Requesting yield curve data for trade signal generation (inversion)
self.yield_curve_symbol = self.add_data(USTreasuryYieldCurveRate, "USTYCR").symbol
# Historical data
history = self.history(USTreasuryYieldCurveRate, self.yield_curve_symbol, 60, Resolution.DAILY)
self.debug(f"We got {len(history)} items from our history request")
self.last_inversion = datetime.min
def on_data(self, slice: Slice) -> None:
# Trade only based on updated yield curve data
if not slice.contains_key(self.yield_curve_symbol):
return
rates = slice[self.yield_curve_symbol]
# We need the 10-year bond yield rate and 2-year bond yield rate for trade signal generation
if not (rates.ten_year is not None and rates.two_year is not None):
return
# Only advance if a year has gone by, since the inversion signal indicates longer term market regime that will not revert in a short period
if (self.time - self.last_inversion < timedelta(days=365)):
return
# Normally, 10y yield should be greater than 2y yield due to default risk accumulation
# But if an inversion occurs, it means the market expects a recession in short term such that the near-expiry bond is more likely to default
# if there is a yield curve inversion after not having one for a year, short sell SPY for two years for the expected down market
if (not self.portfolio.invested and rates.two_year > rates.ten_year):
self.debug(f"{self.time} - Yield curve inversion! Shorting the market for two years")
self.set_holdings(self.spy_symbol, -0.5)
self.last_inversion = self.time
return
# If two years have passed, liquidate our position in SPY assuming the market starts resilience
if (self.time - self.last_inversion >= timedelta(days=365 * 2)):
self.liquidate(self.spy_symbol)
using QuantConnect.DataSource;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.AltData
{
public class USTreasuryDataAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
private Symbol _spySymbol;
private Symbol _yieldCurveSymbol;
private DateTime _lastInversion = DateTime.MinValue;
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2000, 3, 1);
SetEndDate(2021, 6, 1);
SetCash(100000);
// Request SPY as the market representative for trading
_spySymbol = AddEquity("SPY", Resolution.Hour).Symbol;
// Requesting yield curve data for trade signal generation (inversion)
_yieldCurveSymbol = AddData<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>("USTYCR").Symbol;
// Historical data
var history = History<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>(_yieldCurveSymbol, 60, Resolution.Daily);
Debug($"We got {history.Count()} items from our history request");
}
public override void OnData(Slice slice)
{
// Trade only based on updated yield curve data
if (!slice.TryGetValue(_yieldCurveSymbol, out var rates))
{
return;
}
// We need the 10-year bond yield rate and 2-year bond yield rate for trade signal generation
if (!rates.TenYear.HasValue || !rates.TwoYear.HasValue)
{
return;
}
// Only advance if a year has gone by, since the inversion signal indicates longer term market regime that will not revert in a short period
if (Time - _lastInversion < TimeSpan.FromDays(365))
{
return;
}
// Normally, 10y yield should be greater than 2y yield due to default risk accumulation
// But if an inversion occurs, it means the market expects a recession in short term such that the near-expiry bond is more likely to default
// if there is a yield curve inversion after not having one for a year, short sell SPY for two years for the expected down market
if (!Portfolio.Invested && rates.TwoYear > rates.TenYear)
{
Debug($"{Time} - Yield curve inversion! Shorting the market for two years");
SetHoldings(_spySymbol, -0.5);
_lastInversion = Time;
return;
}
// If two years have passed, liquidate our position in SPY assuming the market starts resilience
if (Time - _lastInversion >= TimeSpan.FromDays(365 * 2))
{
Liquidate(_spySymbol);
}
}
}
}
The following example algorithm short sells SPY for two years when the yield curve inverts:
from AlgorithmImports import *
from QuantConnect.DataSource import *
class USTreasuryDataAlgorithm(QCAlgorithm):
def initialize(self) -> None:
self.set_start_date(2000, 3, 1)
self.set_end_date(2021, 6, 1)
self.set_cash(100000)
self.universe_settings.resolution = Resolution.HOUR
# Universe only have SPY as the market representative for trading
symbols = [Symbol.create("SPY", SecurityType.EQUITY, Market.USA)]
self.add_universe_selection(ManualUniverseSelectionModel(symbols))
# Custom alpha model that emit insight according to US Treasury data
self.add_alpha(USTreasuryAlphaModel(self))
# Use insight weighting PCM to limit the size of investment, reduce the fluctuation of the portfolio value
self.set_portfolio_construction(InsightWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel(lambda time: None))
class USTreasuryAlphaModel(AlphaModel):
spy_symbol = None
last_inversion = datetime.min
def __init__(self, algorithm: QCAlgorithm) -> None:
# Requesting yield curve data for trade signal generation (inversion)
self.yield_curve_symbol = algorithm.add_data(USTreasuryYieldCurveRate, "USTYCR").symbol
# Historical data
history = algorithm.history(self.yield_curve_symbol, 60, Resolution.DAILY)
algorithm.debug(f"We got {len(history)} items from our history request")
def update(self, algorithm: QCAlgorithm, slice: Slice) -> List[Insight]:
# Trade only based on updated yield curve data
if not (slice.contains_key(self.yield_curve_symbol) and self.spy_symbol is not None):
return []
rates = slice[self.yield_curve_symbol]
# We need the 10-year bond yield rate and 2-year bond yield rate for trade signal generation
if not (rates.ten_year is not None and rates.two_year is not None):
return []
# Only advance if a year has gone by, since the inversion signal indicates longer term market regime that will not revert in a short period
if (slice.time - self.last_inversion < timedelta(days=365)):
return []
# Normally, 10y yield should be greater than 2y yield due to default risk accumulation
# But if an inversion occurs, it means the market expects a recession in short term such that the near-expiry bond is more likely to default
# if there is a yield curve inversion after not having one for a year, short sell SPY for two years for the expected down market
if (not algorithm.portfolio.invested and rates.two_year > rates.ten_year):
algorithm.debug(f"{slice.time} - Yield curve inversion! Shorting the market for two years")
self.last_inversion = slice.time
return [Insight.price(self.spy_symbol, slice.time + timedelta(days=2*365), InsightDirection.DOWN, None, None, None, 0.5)]
return []
def on_securities_changed(self, algorithm: QCAlgorithm, changes: SecurityChanges) -> None:
for security in changes.added_securities:
self.spy_symbol = security.symbol
using QuantConnect.DataSource;
namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.AltData
{
public class USTreasuryYieldCurveDataAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm
{
public override void Initialize()
{
SetStartDate(2000, 3, 1);
SetEndDate(2021, 6, 1);
SetCash(100000);
UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Hour;
// Universe only have SPY as the market representative for trading
var symbols = new[] {QuantConnect.Symbol.Create("SPY", SecurityType.Equity, Market.USA)};
AddUniverseSelection(new ManualUniverseSelectionModel(symbols));
// Custom alpha model that emit insight according to US Treasury data
AddAlpha(new USTreasuryAlphaModel(this));
// Use insight weighting PCM to limit the size of investment, reduce the fluctuation of the portfolio value
SetPortfolioConstruction(new InsightWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel((time) => null));
}
}
public class USTreasuryAlphaModel : AlphaModel
{
private Symbol? _spySymbol = null;
private Symbol _yieldCurveSymbol;
private DateTime _lastInversion = DateTime.MinValue;
public USTreasuryAlphaModel(QCAlgorithm algorithm)
{
// Requesting yield curve data for trade signal generation (inversion)
_yieldCurveSymbol = algorithm.AddData<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>("USTYCR").Symbol;
// Historical data
var history = algorithm.History<USTreasuryYieldCurveRate>(_yieldCurveSymbol, 60, Resolution.Daily);
algorithm.Debug($"We got {history.Count()} items from our history request");
}
public override IEnumerable<Insight> Update(QCAlgorithm algorithm, Slice slice)
{
var insights = new List<Insight>();
// Trade only based on updated yield curve data
if (!slice.TryGetValue(_yieldCurveSymbol, out var rates) || _spySymbol == null)
{
return insights;
}
// We need the 10-year bond yield rate and 2-year bond yield rate for trade signal generation
if (!rates.TenYear.HasValue || !rates.TwoYear.HasValue)
{
return insights;
}
// Only advance if a year has gone by, since the inversion signal indicates longer term market regime that will not revert in a short period
if (slice.Time - _lastInversion < TimeSpan.FromDays(365))
{
return insights;
}
// Normally, 10y yield should be greater than 2y yield due to default risk accumulation
// But if an inversion occurs, it means the market expects a recession in short term such that the near-expiry bond is more likely to default
// if there is a yield curve inversion after not having one for a year, short sell SPY for two years for the expected down market
if (!algorithm.Portfolio.Invested && rates.TwoYear > rates.TenYear)
{
algorithm.Debug($"{slice.Time} - Yield curve inversion! Shorting the market for two years");
_lastInversion = slice.Time;
insights.Add(Insight.Price(_spySymbol, slice.Time + TimeSpan.FromDays(2*365), InsightDirection.Down, null, null, null, 0.5));
}
return insights;
}
public override void OnSecuritiesChanged(QCAlgorithm algorithm, SecurityChanges changes)
{
foreach (var security in changes.AddedSecurities)
{
_spySymbol = security.Symbol;
}
}
}
}
US Treasury Yield Curve is allowed to be used in the cloud for personal and commercial projects for free. The data is permissioned for use within the licensed organization only
Free | Documentation
US Treasury Yield Curve can be downloaded on premise with the LEAN CLI, for a charge per file downloaded. This download is for the licensed organization's internal LEAN use only and cannot be redistributed or converted in any format.
Starting at 5 QCC/file | Learn More
LEAN CLI is a cross-platform wrapper on the QuantConnect algorithmic trading engine called LEAN. The CLI makes using LEAN incredibly easy, reducing most of the pain points of developing and managing an algorithmic trading strategy to a few lines of bash.
Using the CLI you can download the same data QuantConnect hosts in the cloud for a small fee. These fees are per file downloaded, and are paid for in QuantConnect-Credits (QCC). We recommend purchasing credits to enable downloading.
The CLI command generator is a helpful tool to generate a copy-paste command to download this dataset from the form below.
lean data download \
--dataset "US Treasury Yield Curve"
lean data download `
--dataset "US Treasury Yield Curve"
Freely harness US Treasure Yeild Curve data in the QuantConnect Cloud for your backtesting and live trading purposes.
US Treasury Yield Curve data archived in LEAN format for on premise backtesting and research. One file that is updated daily.
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