Overall Statistics |
Total Trades 66 Average Win 74.14% Average Loss -4.63% Compounding Annual Return 147.782% Drawdown 53.900% Expectancy 3.126 Net Profit 906.383% Sharpe Ratio 2.094 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 76.003% Loss Rate 76% Win Rate 24% Profit-Loss Ratio 16.02 Alpha 0.778 Beta 0.425 Annual Standard Deviation 0.581 Annual Variance 0.338 Information Ratio 0.278 Tracking Error 0.655 Treynor Ratio 2.867 Total Fees $40963.06 Estimated Strategy Capacity $6600000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset ETHUSD 2MN |
#region imports from AlgorithmImports import * #endregion ################################################################################ # KalmanFilterIndicator # # Core logic from @vladimir's KalmanFilter implementation: # https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/12741/kalman-filter-for-bitcoin/p1 # ################################################################################ from pykalman import KalmanFilter class KalmanFilterIndicator(PythonIndicator): def __init__(self,name, period, selector=Field.Close, transition_matrices = [1], observation_matrices = [1], initial_state_mean = 0, initial_state_covariance = 1, observation_covariance=1, transition_covariance=.01): self.Name = name self.period = period self.Value = 0 self.barCalc = selector self.transition_matrices = transition_matrices self.observation_matrices = observation_matrices self.initial_state_mean = initial_state_mean self.initial_state_covariance = initial_state_covariance self.observation_covariance = observation_covariance self.transition_covariance = transition_covariance self.rollingWindow = RollingWindow[float](self.period) # --------------------------------- def Update(self, inputBar): effectiveBarValue = self.barCalc(inputBar) self.rollingWindow.Add(effectiveBarValue) if(not self.rollingWindow.IsReady): return False else: basisValue = np.flipud(np.array([self.rollingWindow[i] for i in range(self.period)])) self.kf = KalmanFilter( transition_matrices = self.transition_matrices, observation_matrices = self.observation_matrices, initial_state_mean = self.initial_state_mean, initial_state_covariance = self.initial_state_covariance, observation_covariance = self.observation_covariance, transition_covariance = self.transition_covariance) kf,_ = self.kf.filter(basisValue) currKalman = kf[-1] self.Value = float(currKalman) return True ################################################################################ # # LaguerreFilterIndicator # ============================== # Laguerre Filter as defined by John F. Ehlers in `Cybernetic Analysis for # Stock and Futures`, 2004, published by Wiley. `ISBN: 978-0-471-46307-8 # https://www.mt5users.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/timewarp.pdf # # Copied from @vladimir's implementation # https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/11788/another-digital-filter-laguerre-filter/p1/comment-34897 # ################################################################################ class LaguerreFilterIndicator(PythonIndicator): def __init__(self, name, gamma ): self.Name = name self.gamma = gamma self.prices = np.array([]) self.Value = 0 self.L0 = 0.0; self.L1 = 0.0; self.L2 = 0.0; self.L3 = 0.0 def Update(self, input): mp = (input.High + input.Low)/2 self.prices = np.append(self.prices, mp)[-4:] if len(self.prices) <= 1: self.L0 = mp; self.L1 = mp; self.L2 = mp; self.L3 = mp; if len(self.prices) != 4 : return L01 = self.L0; L11 = self.L1; L21 = self.L2; L31 = self.L3; g = self.gamma self.L0 = (1 - g)*mp + g*L01 self.L1 = L01 - g*self.L0 + g*L11 self.L2 = L11 - g*self.L1 + g*L21 self.L3 = L21 - g*self.L2 + g*L31 if len(self.prices) != 4 : self.Value = mp return False self.Value = (self.L0 + (2*self.L1) + 2*(self.L2) + self.L3) / 6 return True
#region imports from AlgorithmImports import * #endregion ################################################### # # Smart Rolling window # ======================== # Convenience object to build on RollingWindow functionality # # Methods: # ------------------------- # mySmartWindow.IsRising() # mySmartWindow.IsFalling() # mySmartWindow.crossedAboveValue(value) # mySmartWindow.crossedBelowValue(value) # mySmartWindow.crossedAbove(otherWindow) # mySmartWindow.crossedBelow(otherWindow) # mySmartWindow.IsFlat(decimalPrecision) # mySmartWindow.hasAtLeastThisMany(value) # # # Author:ekz ################################################### class SmartRollingWindow(): def __init__(self, windowType, windowLength): self.window = None self.winLength = windowLength if (windowType is "int"):self.window = RollingWindow[int](windowLength) elif (windowType is "bool"):self.window = RollingWindow[bool](windowLength) elif (windowType is "float"):self.window = RollingWindow[float](windowLength) elif (windowType is "TradeBar"):self.window = RollingWindow[TradeBar](windowLength) def crossedAboveValue(self, value):return (self.window[1] <= value < self.window[0]) def crossedBelowValue(self, value): return (self.window[1] >= value > self.window[0]) def crossedAbove(self, series): return (self.window[1] <= series[1] and self.window[0] > series[0]) def crossedBelow(self, series): return (self.window[1] >= series[1] and self.window[0] < series[0]) def isFlat(self): return (self.window[1] == self.window[0]) def isFalling(self): return (self.window[1] > self.window[0]) def isRising(self): return (self.window[1] < self.window[0]) def Add(self,value): self.window.Add(value) def IsReady(self): return (self.window is not None) and \ (self.window.Count >= self.winLength) ## TODO: just use rw.IsReady? def __getitem__(self, index): return self.window[index]
#region imports from AlgorithmImports import * #endregion ########################################################################################## ## Kalman Crossovers ## ---------------------------------------- ## An exploration of Kalman Filter for trend entry signals, in combination with EMAs and ## Laguerre filters, taking positions when crossovers occur. ## ## Inspired by @vladimir's KalmanFilter and Laguerre implementations: ## https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/12741/kalman-filter-for-bitcoin/p1 ## https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/11788/another-digital-filter-laguerre-filter/p1/comment-34897 ## ## Author:ekz ########################################################################################## from FilterIndicators import * from SmartRollingWindow import * from pykalman import KalmanFilter import numpy as np class KalmanCrossovers(QCAlgorithm): # Initialize params, assets, indicators # ------------------------------------= def Initialize(self): self.InitAlgoParams() self.InitBacktestParams() self.InitAssets() self.InitIndicators() # Set key system parameters. Called from Initialize(). # ----------------------------------------------------- def InitAlgoParams(self): self.ticker = "ETHUSD" self.lgrGamma = float(self.GetParameter("lgrGamma")) self.emaPeriod = int(self.GetParameter("emaPeriod")) self.kalPeriod = int(self.GetParameter("kalPeriod")) self.entryMethod = int(self.GetParameter("entryMethod")) self.exitMethod = int(self.GetParameter("exitMethod")) self.entrySignalMessage = "" self.exitSignalMessage = "" # Set backtest params: dates, cash, etc. Called from Initialize(). # ------------------------------------------------------------------ def InitBacktestParams(self): self.initCash = 100000 # todo: use this to track buy+hold self.SetCash(self.initCash) self.SetStartDate(2020, 1, 1) #self.SetEndDate(2021, 11, 1) # Initialize assets: Symbol, broker, ticker, etc. Called from Initialize(). # ------------------------------------------------------------------------------= def InitAssets(self): self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.FTX, AccountType.Margin) self.crypto = self.AddCrypto(self.ticker, Resolution.Daily).Symbol self.sma = self.SMA(self.crypto, 20, Resolution.Daily) self.SetBenchmark(self.ticker) self.AddRiskManagement(MaximumDrawdownPercentPerSecurity(0.025)) # Initialize indicators. Called from Initialize(). # ------------------------------------------------------ def InitIndicators(self): ## Inquire as to why such a long warmup... self.SetWarmUp(5*self.kalPeriod, Resolution.Daily) self.ema = self.EMA(self.crypto, self.emaPeriod, Resolution.Daily) self.kalFilter = KalmanFilterIndicator(name='Kalman',period=self.kalPeriod, selector=Field.Low) self.lgrFilter = LaguerreFilterIndicator('Laguerre', self.lgrGamma) self.RegisterIndicator(self.crypto, self.kalFilter, Resolution.Daily) self.RegisterIndicator(self.crypto, self.lgrFilter, Resolution.Daily) ## Using a consolidator to schedule entries/exists, in case ## we want to use a custom time frame (otherwise we'd use onData) self.Consolidate(self.crypto, Resolution.Daily, self.OnConsolidatedBarClose) ## Initialize rolling windows. We'll use these to track filter values self.kalWindow = SmartRollingWindow("float", 2) self.emaWindow = SmartRollingWindow("float", 2) self.lgrWindow = SmartRollingWindow("float", 2) self.priceWindow = SmartRollingWindow("float", 2) # Called after every bar close on our primary time frame (eg 30M, 1H, 4H, 1D). # ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- def OnConsolidatedBarClose(self, bar): ## Update rolling windows, we'lll use these to check for crossovers self.UpdateRollingWindows() ## If we're done warming up and indicators are ready, ## check for entry/exit signals and act accordingly if (not self.IsWarmingUp and self.IndicatorsAreReady()): if(self.EntrySignalFired()): self.SetHoldings(self.crypto, 1, tag=self.entrySignalMessage) self.entrySignalMessage = "" elif(self.ExitSignalFired()): self.Liquidate(tag=self.exitSignalMessage) self.exitSignalMessage = "" self.PlotCharts() # If exit criteria is met, then set self.entrySignalMessage and return True # ------------------------------------------------------------------------- def EntrySignalFired(self): if( not self.Portfolio.Invested and self.Securities[self.crypto].Close <= self.sma.Current.Value): ## Entry 1: EMA crossed above Kalman if( self.entryMethod == 1) and ( self.emaWindow.crossedAbove(self.kalWindow) ): self.entrySignalMessage = "ENTRY: EMA x-above Kalman" return True ## Entry 2: Laguerre crossed above Kalman elif( self.entryMethod == 2) and ( self.lgrWindow.crossedAbove(self.kalWindow) ): self.entrySignalMessage = "ENTRY: Laguerre x-above Kalman" return True ## Entry 3: Price crossed above Kalman elif( self.entryMethod == 3) and ( self.priceWindow.crossedAbove(self.kalWindow) ): self.entrySignalMessage = "ENTRY: Price x-above Kalman" return True ## Entry 4: Price is above Kalman elif( self.entryMethod == 4) and ( self.priceWindow[0] > self.kalWindow[0]): self.entrySignalMessage = "ENTRY: Price is above Kalman" return True return False # If exit criteria is met, then set self.exitSignalMessage and return True # ------------------------------------------------------------------------ def ExitSignalFired(self): if( self.Portfolio.Invested): profitpct = round(self.Securities[self.crypto].Holdings.UnrealizedProfitPercent,4) winlossStr = 'WIN' if (profitpct > 0) else 'LOSS' winlossStr = str(profitpct) +"% " + winlossStr ## Exit 1: EMA crossed under Kalman if( self.exitMethod == 1 ) and ( self.emaWindow.crossedBelow(self.kalWindow) ): self.exitSignalMessage = f"EXIT: Ema x-under Kalman @ {winlossStr}" return True ## Exit 2: Laguerre crossed under Kalman elif( self.exitMethod == 2 ) and ( self.lgrWindow.crossedBelow(self.kalWindow) ): self.exitSignalMessage = f"EXIT: Laguerre x-under Kal @ {winlossStr}" return True ## Exit 3: Price crossed under Kalman elif( self.exitMethod == 3 ) and ( self.priceWindow.crossedBelow(self.kalWindow) ): self.exitSignalMessage = f"EXIT: Price x-under Kalman @ {winlossStr}" return True ## Exit 4: Price is below Kalman elif( self.exitMethod == 4 ) and ( self.priceWindow[0] < self.kalWindow[0] ): self.exitSignalMessage = f"EXIT: Price is under Kalman @ {winlossStr}" return True # Update rolling windows (willl need to check for crossovers etc) # --------------------------------------------------------------- def UpdateRollingWindows(self): self.kalWindow.Add(self.kalFilter.Value) self.emaWindow.Add(self.ema.Current.Value) self.lgrWindow.Add(self.lgrFilter.Value) self.priceWindow.Add(self.Securities[self.crypto].Price) # Check if indicators are ready # ---------------------------------------- def IndicatorsAreReady(self): return self.kalFilter.IsReady and self.ema.IsReady and \ self.lgrFilter.IsReady # Plot Charts # ---------------------------------------- def PlotCharts(self): self.Plot("charts", "Price", self.Securities[self.crypto].Price) self.Plot("charts", "Kalman", self.kalFilter.Value) self.Plot("charts", "EMA", self.ema.Current.Value) self.Plot("charts", "Laguerre", float(self.lgrFilter.Value))