Overall Statistics |
Total Trades 602 Average Win 0.29% Average Loss -0.12% Compounding Annual Return 33.029% Drawdown 14.900% Expectancy 0.911 Net Profit 37.952% Sharpe Ratio 1.338 Loss Rate 44% Win Rate 56% Profit-Loss Ratio 2.42 Alpha 0.304 Beta -0.331 Annual Standard Deviation 0.189 Annual Variance 0.036 Information Ratio 0.451 Tracking Error 0.218 Treynor Ratio -0.764 Total Fees $623.35 |
using MathNet.Numerics; using MathNet.Numerics.Statistics; using QuantConnect.Indicators; using System; using System.Linq; /// <summary> /// Indictor to indicate the percentage (0.10 = 10%) of which a security gapped over the last period; /// </summary> namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers { public class GapIndicator : WindowIndicator<IndicatorDataPoint> { public GapIndicator(int period) : base("GAP(" + period + ")", period) { } public GapIndicator(string name, int period) : base(name, period) { } public override bool IsReady { get { return Samples >= Period; } } protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(IReadOnlyWindow<IndicatorDataPoint> window, IndicatorDataPoint input) { if (window.Count < 3) return 0m; var diff = new double[window.Count]; // load input data for regression for (int i = 0; i < window.Count - 1; i++) { diff[i] = (double)((window[i + 1] - window[i]) / (window[i] == 0 ? 1 : window[i].Value)); } return (decimal) diff.MaximumAbsolute(); } } }
using MathNet.Numerics; using MathNet.Numerics.Statistics; using System; using System.Linq; using QuantConnect.Data.Market; using QuantConnect.Data.UniverseSelection; using QuantConnect.Indicators; using QuantConnect.Securities; using System.Collections.Generic; using QuantConnect.Data.Fundamental; using QuantConnect.Brokerages; using QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers; using System.Net; using System.Text.RegularExpressions; namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp { /* Momentum strategy according to Andreas F. Clenow book 'Stocks on the Move Beating the Market with Hedge Fund Momentum Strategies' ** Objective of the algorithm: ** The algorithm selects from the SP500 universe the stocks with fastest rising stocks with limited volatility. Every week the risk of the portfolio is balanced. Once a month the stocks are rebalanced. The algo only buys if the market is in a high trend (Bulish); ** Trade rules: ** The rules are: - Rule 00: SP500 stocks - Rule 01: Trade on Wednesdays to limit number of trades; - Rule 02: Twice a month reset the positions sizes (risk); - Rule 03: Rebalance every week; - Rule 04: If the stock is not in the top 100/ 20% ranking, sell it; - Rule 05: If the stock is below its 100 days moving average, sell it; - Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15%, sell it; - Rule 07: If the stock left the index, sell it; - Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not; - Rule 09: Calculate the position sizes, based on 10 basis points using ATR formula; - Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on 90 past days annualized exponential regression slope; - Rule 11: Momentum is weighted for volatility adjustment (r^2); - Rule 12: Position Size = (portfolioSize*0,001/ ATR)= #Shares; - Rule 13: Trade maximum 30 stocks; ** Change history: ** 20180102_01: QT, created algo based on cloned algorithm. Refactoring algo. 20180103_01: QT, seems that universe selecting may not have own calculations. */ /// <summary> /// Momentum strategy according to Andreas F. Clenow book /// Stocks on the Move Beating the Market with Hedge Fund Momentum Strategies' /// </summary> public class MomentumStrategyStockUniverseAlgorithm : QCAlgorithm { private const string Spy = "SPY"; //https://www.barchart.com/ private readonly List<string> _sp500FixedStockList = new List<string>() { "A", "AAL", "AAP", "AAPL", "ABBV", "ABC", "ABT", "ACN", "ADBE", "ADI", "ADM", "ADP", "ADS", "ADSK", "AEE", "AEP", "AES", "AET", "AFL", "AGN", "AIG", "AIV", "AIZ", "AJG", "AKAM", "ALB", "ALGN", "ALK", "ALL", "ALLE", "ALXN", "AMAT", "AMD", "AME", "AMG", "AMGN", "AMP", "AMT", "AMZN", "ANDV", "ANSS", "ANTM", "AON", "AOS", "APA", "APC", "APD", "APH", "APTV", "ARE", "ARNC", "ATVI", "AVB", "AVGO", "AVY", "AWK", "AXP", "AYI", "AZO", "BA", "BAC", "BAX", "BBT", "BBY", "BDX", "BEN", "BF.B", "BHF", "BHGE", "BIIB", "BK", "BLK", "BLL", "BMY", "BRK.B", "BSX", "BWA", "BXP", "C", "CA", "CAG", "CAH", "CAT", "CB", "CBG", "CBOE", "CBS", "CCI", "CCL", "CDNS", "CELG", "CERN", "CF", "CFG", "CHD", "CHK", "CHRW", "CHTR", "CI", "CINF", "CL", "CLX", "CMA", "CMCSA", "CME", "CMG", "CMI", "CMS", "CNC", "CNP", "COF", "COG", "COL", "COO", "COP", "COST", "COTY", "CPB", "CRM", "CSCO", "CSRA", "CSX", "CTAS", "CTL", "CTSH", "CTXS", "CVS", "CVX", "CXO", "D", "DAL", "DE", "DFS", "DG", "DGX", "DHI", "DHR", "DIS", "DISCA", "DISCK", "DISH", "DLR", "DLTR", "DOV", "DPS", "DRE", "DRI", "DTE", "DUK", "DVA", "DVN", "DWDP", "DXC", "EA", "EBAY", "ECL", "ED", "EFX", "EIX", "EL", "EMN", "EMR", "EOG", "EQIX", "EQR", "EQT", "ES", "ESRX", "ESS", "ETFC", "ETN", "ETR", "EVHC", "EW", "EXC", "EXPD", "EXPE", "EXR", "F", "FAST", "FB", "FBHS", "FCX", "FDX", "FE", "FFIV", "FIS", "FISV", "FITB", "FL", "FLIR", "FLR", "FLS", "FMC", "FOX", "FOXA", "FRT", "FTI", "FTV", "GD", "GE", "GGP", "GILD", "GIS", "GLW", "GM", "GOOG", "GOOGL", "GPC", "GPN", "GPS", "GRMN", "GS", "GT", "GWW", "HAL", "HAS", "HBAN", "HBI", "HCA", "HCN", "HCP", "HD", "HES", "HIG", "HII", "HLT", "HOG", "HOLX", "HON", "HP", "HPE", "HPQ", "HRB", "HRL", "HRS", "HSIC", "HST", "HSY", "HUM", "IBM", "ICE", "IDXX", "IFF", "ILMN", "INCY", "INFO", "INTC", "INTU", "IP", "IPG", "IQV", "IR", "IRM", "ISRG", "IT", "ITW", "IVZ", "JBHT", "JCI", "JEC", "JNJ", "JNPR", "JPM", "JWN", "K", "KEY", "KHC", "KIM", "KLAC", "KMB", "KMI", "KMX", "KO", "KORS", "KR", "KSS", "KSU", "L", "LB", "LEG", "LEN", "LH", "LKQ", "LLL", "LLY", "LMT", "LNC", "LNT", "LOW", "LRCX", "LUK", "LUV", "LYB", "M", "MA", "MAA", "MAC", "MAR", "MAS", "MAT", "MCD", "MCHP", "MCK", "MCO", "MDLZ", "MDT", "MET", "MGM", "MHK", "MKC", "MLM", "MMC", "MMM", "MNST", "MO", "MON", "MOS", "MPC", "MRK", "MRO", "MS", "MSFT", "MSI", "MTB", "MTD", "MU", "MYL", "NAVI", "NBL", "NCLH", "NDAQ", "NEE", "NEM", "NFLX", "NFX", "NI", "NKE", "NLSN", "NOC", "NOV", "NRG", "NSC", "NTAP", "NTRS", "NUE", "NVDA", "NWL", "NWS", "NWSA", "O", "OKE", "OMC", "ORCL", "ORLY", "OXY", "PAYX", "PBCT", "PCAR", "PCG", "PCLN", "PDCO", "PEG", "PEP", "PFE", "PFG", "PG", "PGR", "PH", "PHM", "PKG", "PKI", "PLD", "PM", "PNC", "PNR", "PNW", "PPG", "PPL", "PRGO", "PRU", "PSA", "PSX", "PVH", "PWR", "PX", "PXD", "PYPL", "QCOM", "QRVO", "RCL", "RE", "REG", "REGN", "RF", "RHI", "RHT", "RJF", "RL", "RMD", "ROK", "ROP", "ROST", "RRC", "RSG", "RTN", "SBAC", "SBUX", "SCG", "SCHW", "SEE", "SHW", "SIG", "SJM", "SLB", "SLG", "SNA", "SNI", "SNPS", "SO", "SPG", "SPGI", "SRCL", "SRE", "STI", "STT", "STX", "STZ", "SWK", "SWKS", "SYF", "SYK", "SYMC", "SYY", "T", "TAP", "TDG", "TEL", "TGT", "TIF", "TJX", "TMK", "TMO", "TPR", "TRIP", "TROW", "TRV", "TSCO", "TSN", "TSS", "TWX", "TXN", "TXT", "UA", "UAA", "UAL", "UDR", "UHS", "ULTA", "UNH", "UNM", "UNP", "UPS", "URI", "USB", "UTX", "V", "VAR", "VFC", "VIAB", "VLO", "VMC", "VNO", "VRSK", "VRSN", "VRTX", "VTR", "VZ", "WAT", "WBA", "WDC", "WEC", "WFC", "WHR", "WLTW", "WM", "WMB", "WMT", "WRK", "WU", "WY", "WYN", "WYNN", "XEC", "XEL", "XL", "XLNX", "XOM", "XRAY", "XRX", "XYL", "YUM", "ZBH", "ZION", "ZTS"}; /// <summary> /// Only used in backtest for caching the file results /// </summary> private Dictionary<DateTime, List<string>> _sp500List; /// Rule 00: SP500 stocks private static int _universeSelectMaxStocks = 500; /// Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on 90 past days annualized exponential regression slope; private int _annualizedSlopeWindow = 90; /// <summary> /// Rule 05: If the stock is below its 100 days moving average, sell it; /// </summary> private int _movingAverageWindow = 100; /// <summary> /// ATR window /// </summary> private int _atrWindow = 20; /// <summary> /// Risk of the contract on the portfolio. Typically 1-5%. Take notice of contract size of (futures * price) /// </summary> private const decimal RiskPerContractOnPortfolio = 0.015m; private ExponentialMovingAverage _spyMovingAverage; private BollingerBands _spyBollingerBands; /// <summary> /// Holds our indicators per symbol /// </summary> private Dictionary<Symbol, CustomMomentumIndicator> _customIndicators = new Dictionary<QuantConnect.Symbol, CustomMomentumIndicator>(_universeSelectMaxStocks); // Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not; private int _trendfilter = 200; // Rule 04: If the stock is not in the top 100/ 20% ranking, sell it; private int _topNStockOfSp500 = 100; /// <summary> /// Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15% over period, sell it: Maximum Gap in percentage /// </summary> private decimal _maximumGap = 0.15m; /// <summary> /// Rule 06x: minimum annualized slope before buying stock. /// </summary> private decimal _minimumAnnualizedSlope = 0.0005m; /// <summary> /// Rule 06: If the stock gapped > 15% over period, sell it: Gap window /// </summary> private int _gapWindow = 90; // Rule 13: Trade maximum 30 stocks; private int _maxStockInPortfolio = 20; private bool _isDebugging = true; private bool _isPlotting = true; private int _isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = 0; /// <summary> /// Is debugging set, speed up processing /// </summary> public bool IsDebugging { get { return _isDebugging; } } /// <summary> /// Is plotting set /// </summary> public bool IsPlotting { get { return _isPlotting; } } /// <summary> /// Log messages only if IsDebugging /// </summary> /// <param name="message"></param> public new void Log(string message) { if(IsDebugging) base.Log(message); } /// <summary> /// Initialise the data and resolution required, as well as the cash and start-end dates for your algorithm. All algorithms must initialized. /// </summary> public override void Initialize() { _isDebugging = false; //Set trading window SetStartDate(2017, 1, 1); SetEndDate(2018, 2, 14); //SetEndDate(DateTime.Now); //Set brokermodel SetCash(100000); SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.InteractiveBrokersBrokerage, AccountType.Margin); //Set moving average on SPY and benchmark var spy = AddEquity(Spy); SetBenchmark(spy.Symbol); _spyMovingAverage = EMA(spy.Symbol, _trendfilter, Resolution.Daily); _spyBollingerBands = BB(spy.Symbol, 21, 2, MovingAverageType.DoubleExponential, Resolution.Daily); //Warm up indicator IEnumerable<TradeBar> history = History(spy.Symbol, _trendfilter, Resolution.Daily); foreach (TradeBar tradeBar in history) { _spyMovingAverage.Update(tradeBar.EndTime, tradeBar.Close); _spyBollingerBands.Update(tradeBar.EndTime, tradeBar.Close); } //set warm up algorithm to avoid premature trading SetWarmUp(_trendfilter); //setup universe with filters for coarse and fine: https://www.quantconnect.com/docs#Universes UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Daily; AddUniverse(CoarseSelectionFunction, FineSelectionFunction); //Rule 01: Trade on Wednesdays to limit number of trades; //trade only on wednesdays at opening after 10 minutes Schedule.On(DateRules.Every(DayOfWeek.Wednesday, DayOfWeek.Wednesday), TimeRules.AfterMarketOpen(Spy, 10), ScheduledOnWednesDay10MinutesAfterMarketOpen); if (IsDebugging) base.Log("*** DEBUGGING: TAKE CARE OF PARAMETERS ***"); } private void ScheduledOnWednesDay10MinutesAfterMarketOpen() { if (IsWarmingUp) return; if(_customIndicators == null || _customIndicators.Count == 0) { base.Log($"*** No custom indicators! *** "); return; } //if (Time.DayOfWeek != DayOfWeek.Wednesday) // return; //#- Rule 10: Momentum is calculated based on self.momentum_window (90) past days annualized exponential regression slope; //#- Rule 11: Momentum is weighted for volatility adjustment (r^2); var sortedEquityListBySlope = _customIndicators.Where( x => x.Value.IsReady && x.Value.AnnualizedSlope > _minimumAnnualizedSlope && x.Value.Gap < _maximumGap && Securities[x.Key].Price > x.Value.MovingAverage ).OrderByDescending(x => x.Value.AnnualizedSlope) .Take(_topNStockOfSp500).ToList(); if (sortedEquityListBySlope.Count == 0) base.Log($"sortedEquityListBySlope is empty. There where {_customIndicators.Count} custom Indicators."); //Liquidate that is not in buylist foreach (var security in Portfolio.Values) { if (!sortedEquityListBySlope.Exists(x => x.Value.Symbol == security.Symbol)) { if (security.Invested) { #if JO_DEBUG Log($"Liquidate {security.Symbol} from Holdings"); #endif Liquidate(security.Symbol); if (_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol)) _customIndicators.Remove(security.Symbol); } } } #if JO_DEBUG foreach (var security in sortedEquityListBySlope) Log($"Slope: {security.Value.AnnualizedSlope},indicator: {security.Value.ToDetailedString()}"); #endif // Do we have cash to trade? if (Portfolio.Cash > 0) { decimal estimatedPortfolioCashBalance = Portfolio.Cash; foreach (var data in sortedEquityListBySlope) { CustomMomentumIndicator customIndicator = data.Value; var symbol = customIndicator.Symbol; if (!customIndicator.IsReady) base.Log($"!customerIndicator[{customIndicator}].IsReady"); //- Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not; if (Securities[Spy].Price > _spyMovingAverage) { var risk = Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue * RiskPerContractOnPortfolio; var weight = (risk / customIndicator.Atr) * Securities[symbol].Price / Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue * 100; //^TO-DO: not working. #if JO_DEBUG Log($"BUY >> {symbol} weight: {weight}, price: {Securities[symbol].Price}"); #endif SetHoldings(symbol, 1 / (double)_maxStockInPortfolio); } } } //plot fir custom indicator if(IsPlotting) { var customIndicator = sortedEquityListBySlope.FirstOrDefault(); Plot("FirstIndicator", "Price", Securities[customIndicator.Key].Close); Plot("FirstIndicator", "MovingAverage", customIndicator.Value.MovingAverage); Plot("FirstIndicator", "Gap", customIndicator.Value.Gap); Plot("FirstIndicator", "AnnualizedSlope", customIndicator.Value.AnnualizedSlope); Plot("FirstIndicator", "Atr", customIndicator.Value.Atr); } } #region data selection /// <summary> /// Select S&P500 stocks only: /// Market capitalization must be greater than or equal to $6.1 billion USD /// Annual dollar value traded to float-adjusted market capitalization is greater than 1.0 /// Minimum monthly trading volume of 250,000 shares in each of the six months leading up to the evaluation date /// </summary> /// <param name="coarse"></param> /// <returns></returns> public IEnumerable<Symbol> CoarseSelectionFunction(IEnumerable<CoarseFundamental> coarse) { //const decimal MarketCapitalization = 2100000000m; //^not supported by Quantconnect; var sp500List = GetSP500SymbolList(Time.Date); const decimal DollarVolume = 21000000m; //if (!_rebalanceFlag) return Enumerable.Empty<Symbol>(); // Market capitalization must be greater than or equal to $6.1 billion USD, Traded shares x Price var filtered = from x in coarse where x.HasFundamentalData where x.DollarVolume >= DollarVolume //where x.Volume > 250000 where x.Price > 10 join SP500 in sp500List on x.Symbol.Value equals SP500 select x; var topCoarse = filtered.Take(_universeSelectMaxStocks); return topCoarse.Select(x => x.Symbol); } //Select S&P500 stocks only: //Not possible at quantconnect so try to select common stock, primary share and dividend share public IEnumerable<Symbol> FineSelectionFunction(IEnumerable<FineFundamental> fine) { //if (!_rebalanceFlag) return Enumerable.Empty<Symbol>(); var filtered = from x in fine where x.SecurityReference.SecurityType == "ST00000001" && x.SecurityReference.IsPrimaryShare select x; return filtered.Select(x => x.Symbol); } #endregion data selection // this event fires whenever we have changes to our universe public override void OnSecuritiesChanged(SecurityChanges changes) { if (changes.AddedSecurities.Count > 0) { #if JO_DEBUG Log("Securities added: " + string.Join(",", changes.AddedSecurities.Select(x => x.Symbol.Value))); #endif foreach (Security security in changes.AddedSecurities) { if (!_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol)) { var customIndicator = new CustomMomentumIndicator(security.Symbol, _annualizedSlopeWindow, _movingAverageWindow, _gapWindow, _atrWindow); //warm up indicator var history = History(security.Symbol, customIndicator.Window, Resolution.Daily); foreach (TradeBar tradeBar in history) customIndicator.Update(tradeBar); if (customIndicator.IsReady) { _customIndicators.Add(security.Symbol, customIndicator); RegisterIndicator(security.Symbol, customIndicator, Resolution.Daily); //Log($"_securityChanges.AddedSecurities, Security: {security} with warmup of {customIndicator.Window} and indicator {customIndicator}."); } else base.Log($"*** _securityChanges.AddedSecurities, Security: {security} not ready!"); } } } if (changes.RemovedSecurities.Count > 0) { #if JO_DEBUG Log("Securities removed: " + string.Join(",", changes.RemovedSecurities.Select(x => x.Symbol.Value))); #endif foreach (var security in changes.RemovedSecurities) { if (security.Invested) { Liquidate(security.Symbol); if (_customIndicators.ContainsKey(security.Symbol)) _customIndicators.Remove(security.Symbol); #if JO_DEBUG Log(string.Format("Security.Invested: Securities removed: {0} ", security)); #endif } } } } /// <summary> /// Get SP500 symbols through the years /// Credits to AutomatedMachine /// </summary> /// <param name="dateTime"></param> /// <returns></returns> public List<string> GetSP500SymbolList(DateTime dateTime) { if (LiveMode) return _sp500FixedStockList; if (_sp500List == null) { _sp500List = new Dictionary<DateTime, List<string>>(); //url with sp500 csv file string url = @"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12lUYUHYWNYhLBvJGcsXp2ZBXdJ7g3-Sspwvg0L62NAk/gviz/tq?tqx=out:csv&sheet=Backtest_CSV"; using (var client = new WebClient()) { // fetch the file from dropbox var file = client.DownloadString(url); file = Regex.Replace(file, "\"", string.Empty); // split the file into lines and add to our cache foreach (var line in file.Split(new[] { '\n', '\r' }, StringSplitOptions.RemoveEmptyEntries)) { var csv = line.ToCsv(); var date = DateTime.ParseExact(csv[0], "yyyy-MM-dd", null); //2017-09-18 var symbols = csv.Skip(1).ToList(); _sp500List[date] = symbols; } } } var result = _sp500List.OrderByDescending(x => x.Key).FirstOrDefault(x => x.Key < dateTime).Value; if(result == null) result = _sp500List.OrderBy(x => x.Key).FirstOrDefault().Value; return result; } // Fire plotting events once per day: public override void OnEndOfDay() { if (Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue > 0) { var accountLeverage = Portfolio.TotalAbsoluteHoldingsCost / Portfolio.TotalPortfolioValue; Plot("Leverage", "Leverage", accountLeverage); } if (!Securities.ContainsKey(Spy)) { base.Log(string.Format("!data.ContainsKey({0}) ", Spy)); return; } #if JO_DEBUG //- Rule 08: If the SP500 is above the 200 days moving average we buy stocks, otherwise not; if (Securities[Spy].Price <= _spyMovingAverage) { //$TODO: buy T-note/ gold/ silver? if (_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot >= 0) { Log(string.Format("Spy in downtrend: {0} < {1}", Securities[Spy].Price, _spyMovingAverage)); _isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = -1; } } else { if (_isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot <= 0) { Log(string.Format("Spy in uptrend: {0} > {1}", Securities[Spy].Price, _spyMovingAverage)); _isLogSpyMovingAveragePivot = 1; } } #endif ///Plotting //Assuming daily mode,dont chart in a smaller res and kill quota if (IsPlotting) { if (Securities.ContainsKey(Spy)) { Plot(Spy, "Price", Securities[Spy].Close); if (_spyMovingAverage.IsReady) { Plot(Spy, _spyMovingAverage); } if(_spyBollingerBands.IsReady) { Plot(Spy, _spyBollingerBands.UpperBand, _spyBollingerBands.MiddleBand, _spyBollingerBands.LowerBand); } } } } } }
using MathNet.Numerics; using MathNet.Numerics.LinearAlgebra; using QuantConnect.Indicators; using System; using System.Linq; //Copied from this forum: //href https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/695/adjusted-slope--exponential-slope----annualized-slope--r-squuared--adjusted-slope/p1 namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers { public class AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator : WindowIndicator<IndicatorDataPoint> { /// <summary> /// Array representing the time. /// </summary> private readonly double[] t; public AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(int period) : base("AESI(" + period + ")", period) { t = Vector<double>.Build.Dense(period, i => i + 1).ToArray(); } public AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(string name, int period) : base(name, period) { t = Vector<double>.Build.Dense(period, i => i + 1).ToArray(); } protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(IReadOnlyWindow<IndicatorDataPoint> window, IndicatorDataPoint input) { // Until the window is ready, the indicator returns the input value. if (window.Samples <= window.Size) return 0m; // Sort the window by time, convert the observations to double and transform it to an array var series = window .OrderBy(i => i.Time) .Select(i => Convert.ToDouble(Math.Log(Convert.ToDouble(i.Value)))) .ToArray(); // Fit OLS // solves y=a + b*x via linear regression // http://numerics.mathdotnet.com/Regression.html var ols = Fit.Line(x: t, y: series); var intercept = ols.Item1; var slope = ols.Item2; //Intercept.Update(input.Time, (decimal) ols.Item1); //Slope.Update(input.Time, (decimal) ols.Item2); // compute rsquared var rsquared = GoodnessOfFit.RSquared(t.Select(x => intercept + slope * x), series); // anything this small can be viewed as flat if (double.IsNaN(slope) || Math.Abs(slope) < 1e-25) return 0m; // trading days per year for us equities const int dayCount = 250; // annualize dy/dt var annualSlope = ((Math.Pow(Math.Exp(slope), dayCount)) - 1) * 100; // scale with rsquared annualSlope = annualSlope * Math.Pow(rsquared, 2); //annualSlope = annualSlope * rsquared; if (annualSlope >= (double)decimal.MaxValue || annualSlope <= (double)decimal.MinValue) { annualSlope = 0; //Debug("Negative slope due to arithmic overflow"); } return Convert.ToDecimal(annualSlope); } } }
using MathNet.Numerics; using MathNet.Numerics.LinearAlgebra; using QuantConnect.Data.Market; using QuantConnect.Indicators; using System; using System.Collections.Generic; using System.Linq; //Copied from this forum: //href https://www.quantconnect.com/forum/discussion/695/adjusted-slope--exponential-slope----annualized-slope--r-squuared--adjusted-slope/p1 namespace QuantConnect.Algorithm.CSharp.Helpers { public class CustomMomentumIndicator : TradeBarIndicator { private Symbol _symbol; private int _windowSize; public readonly AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator AnnualizedSlope; public readonly ExponentialMovingAverage MovingAverage; public readonly GapIndicator Gap; public readonly AverageTrueRange Atr; public CustomMomentumIndicator(Symbol symbol, int annualizedSlopeWindow, int movingAverageWindow, int gapWindow, int atrWindow) : base($"CMI({symbol}, {annualizedSlopeWindow}, {movingAverageWindow}, {gapWindow})") { _symbol = symbol; AnnualizedSlope = new AnnualizedExponentialSlopeIndicator(annualizedSlopeWindow); MovingAverage = new ExponentialMovingAverage(movingAverageWindow); Gap = new GapIndicator(gapWindow); Atr = new AverageTrueRange(atrWindow); _windowSize = (new int[] { movingAverageWindow, annualizedSlopeWindow, gapWindow, atrWindow }).Max(); } public Symbol Symbol { get { return _symbol; } } public override void Reset() { AnnualizedSlope.Reset(); MovingAverage.Reset(); Gap.Reset(); Atr.Reset(); base.Reset(); } protected override decimal ComputeNextValue(TradeBar input) { AnnualizedSlope.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value); MovingAverage.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value); Gap.Update(input.EndTime, input.Value); Atr.Update(input); return AnnualizedSlope; } /// <summary> /// Are the indicators ready to be used? /// </summary> public override bool IsReady { get { return AnnualizedSlope.IsReady && MovingAverage.IsReady && Gap.IsReady && Atr.IsReady; } } /// <summary> /// Returns the Window of the indicator required to warm up indicator /// </summary> public int Window { get {return _windowSize;} } public new string ToDetailedString() { return $"Symbol:{_symbol} Slope:{AnnualizedSlope.ToDetailedString()} Average:{MovingAverage.ToDetailedString()} Gap:{Gap.ToDetailedString()} Atr:{Atr.ToDetailedString()} IsReady:{IsReady}"; } } }