Overall Statistics |
Total Trades 6382 Average Win 0.31% Average Loss -0.39% Compounding Annual Return 0% Drawdown 113.700% Expectancy -0.231 Net Profit -113.789% Sharpe Ratio -0.548 Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio 0.000% Loss Rate 57% Win Rate 43% Profit-Loss Ratio 0.80 Alpha 0 Beta 0 Annual Standard Deviation 0.62 Annual Variance 0.384 Information Ratio -0.548 Tracking Error 0.62 Treynor Ratio 0 Total Fees $77871.66 Estimated Strategy Capacity $9400000.00 Lowest Capacity Asset NEM R735QTJ8XC9X Portfolio Turnover 142.06% |
# region imports from AlgorithmImports import * from universe import SectorETFUniverseSelectionModel from portfolio import CointegratedVectorPortfolioConstructionModel # endregion class ETFPairsTrading(QCAlgorithm): def Initialize(self): self.SetStartDate(2019, 1, 1) # Set Start Date self.SetCash(1000000) # Set Strategy Cash lookback = self.GetParameter("lookback", 100) # lookback window on correlation & coinetgration threshold = self.GetParameter("threshold", 2) # we want at least 2% expected profit margin to cover fees self.SetBrokerageModel(BrokerageName.InteractiveBrokersBrokerage, AccountType.Margin) self.UniverseSettings.Resolution = Resolution.Minute self.SetUniverseSelection(SectorETFUniverseSelectionModel(self.UniverseSettings)) # This alpha model helps to pick the most correlated pair # and emit signal when they have mispricing that stay active for a predicted period # https://www.quantconnect.com/docs/v2/writing-algorithms/algorithm-framework/alpha/supported-models#09-Pearson-Correlation-Pairs-Trading-Model self.AddAlpha(PearsonCorrelationPairsTradingAlphaModel(lookback, Resolution.Daily, threshold=threshold)) # We try to use cointegrating vector to decide the relative movement magnitude of the paired assets pcm = CointegratedVectorPortfolioConstructionModel(self, lookback, Resolution.Daily) pcm.RebalancePortfolioOnSecurityChanges = False self.SetPortfolioConstruction(pcm) self.SetWarmUp(timedelta(90))
#region imports from AlgorithmImports import * from Portfolio.EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel import EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel from arch.unitroot.cointegration import engle_granger #endregion class CointegratedVectorPortfolioConstructionModel(EqualWeightingPortfolioConstructionModel): def __init__(self, algorithm, lookback = 252, resolution = Resolution.Minute, rebalance = Expiry.EndOfWeek, portfolioBias = PortfolioBias.LongShort) -> None: super().__init__(rebalance, portfolioBias) self.algorithm = algorithm self.lookback = lookback self.resolution = resolution self.symbol_data = {} def ShouldCreateTargetForInsight(self, insight: Insight) -> bool: # Ignore insights if the asset has open position in the same direction return self.symbol_data[insight.Symbol].ShouldCreateNewTarget(insight.Direction) def DetermineTargetPercent(self, activeInsights: List[Insight]) -> Dict[Insight, float]: result = {} # Reset indicators when corporate actions occur for symbol in self.algorithm.CurrentSlice.Splits.keys(): if symbol in self.symbol_data: self.symbol_data[symbol].Reset() self.symbol_data[symbol].WarmUpIndicator() for symbol in self.algorithm.CurrentSlice.Dividends.keys(): if symbol in self.symbol_data: self.symbol_data[symbol].Reset() self.symbol_data[symbol].WarmUpIndicator() # If less than 2 active insights, no valid pair trading can be resulted if len(activeInsights) < 2: self.LiveLog(self.algorithm, f'PortfolioContructionModel: Less then 2 insights. Create zero-quantity targets') return {insight: 0 for insight in activeInsights} # Get log return for cointegrating vector regression logr = pd.DataFrame({symbol: data.Return for symbol, data in self.symbol_data.items() if symbol in [x.Symbol for x in activeInsights]}) # fill nans with mean, if the whole column is nan, drop it logr = logr.fillna(logr.mean()).dropna(axis=1) # make sure we have at least 2 columns if logr.shape[1] < 2: self.LiveLog(self.algorithm, f'PortfolioContructionModel: Less then 2 insights. Create zero-quantity targets.') return {insight: 0 for insight in activeInsights} # Obtain the cointegrating vector of all signaled assets for statistical arbitrage model = engle_granger(logr.iloc[:, 0], logr.iloc[:, 1:], trend='n', max_lags=1) # If result not significant, return if model.pvalue > 0.05: return {insight: 0 for insight in activeInsights} # Normalization for budget constraint coint_vector = model.cointegrating_vector total_weight = sum(abs(coint_vector)) for insight, weight in zip(activeInsights, coint_vector): # we can assume any paired assets' 2 dimensions in coint_vector are in opposite sign result[insight] = abs(weight) / total_weight * insight.Direction return result def OnSecuritiesChanged(self, algorithm: QCAlgorithm, changes: SecurityChanges) -> None: self.LiveLog(algorithm, f'PortfolioContructionModel.OnSecuritiesChanged: Changes: {changes}') super().OnSecuritiesChanged(algorithm, changes) for removed in changes.RemovedSecurities: symbolData = self.symbol_data.pop(removed.Symbol, None) if symbolData: symbolData.Dispose() for added in changes.AddedSecurities: symbol = added.Symbol if symbol not in self.symbol_data: symbolData = self.SymbolData(algorithm, symbol, self.lookback, self.resolution) self.symbol_data[symbol] = symbolData def LiveLog(self, algorithm, message): if algorithm.LiveMode: algorithm.Log(message) class SymbolData: def __init__(self, algorithm, symbol, lookback, resolution): self.algorithm = algorithm self.symbol = symbol self.lookback = lookback self.resolution = resolution # To store the historical daily log return self.windows = RollingWindow[IndicatorDataPoint](lookback) # Use daily log return to predict cointegrating vector self.logr = LogReturn(1) self.logr.Updated += self.OnUpdate self.consolidator = TradeBarConsolidator(timedelta(1)) # Subscribe the consolidator and indicator to data for automatic update algorithm.RegisterIndicator(symbol, self.logr, self.consolidator) algorithm.SubscriptionManager.AddConsolidator(symbol, self.consolidator) self.WarmUpIndicator() def WarmUpIndicator(self): # historical warm-up on the log return indicator history = self.algorithm.History[TradeBar](self.symbol, self.lookback, self.resolution) for bar in list(history)[:-1]: self.logr.Update(bar.EndTime, bar.Close) def OnUpdate(self, sender, updated): self.windows.Add(IndicatorDataPoint(updated.EndTime, updated.Value)) def Dispose(self): self.logr.Updated -= self.OnUpdate self.Reset() self.algorithm.SubscriptionManager.RemoveConsolidator(self.symbol, self.consolidator) def Reset(self): self.logr.Reset() self.windows.Reset() def ShouldCreateNewTarget(self, direction): quantity = self.algorithm.Portfolio[self.symbol].Quantity return quantity == 0 or direction != np.sign(quantity) @property def Return(self): return pd.Series( data = [x.Value for x in self.windows], index = [x.EndTime.date() for x in self.windows])[::-1]
#region imports from AlgorithmImports import * #endregion class SectorETFUniverseSelectionModel(ETFConstituentsUniverseSelectionModel): def __init__(self, universe_settings: UniverseSettings = None) -> None: # Select the tech sector ETF constituents to get correlated assets symbol = Symbol.Create("IYM", SecurityType.Equity, Market.USA) super().__init__(symbol, universe_settings, self.ETFConstituentsFilter) def ETFConstituentsFilter(self, constituents: List[ETFConstituentData]) -> List[Symbol]: # Get the 10 securities with the largest weight in the index to reduce slippage and keep speed of the algorithm selected = sorted([c for c in constituents if c.Weight], key=lambda c: c.Weight, reverse=True) return [c.Symbol for c in selected[:10]]