So let EUR/JPY=A, EUR/USD=B, and USD/JPY=C. Then A/B=C, theoretically. In the market you can compare this theoretical value for C against the actual USD/JPY price and there is usually a small discrepency, but for all practical purposes A/B=C is a market contingency. So, if you BUY A and sell both B and C, you have created a perfect spot hedge between the three pairs, likewise if you SELL A and buy B and C you also have a perfefct spot hedge. That is, if you ignore the spreads (for sake of argument), and ignore the mispricing, you will forever have a 0 portfolio (you must trade equal pip value amongst the three pairs). What I am trying to do is come up with a way to create "bubbles" whereby I can increase the account balance and keep the negative equity where it is or even decrease it. It is important to note, that (once again ignoring mispricing and spreads) that the sum of the pips will always give you 0. So if you are down in A by 15 pips and down in B by 5 pips then you are up in C by 20 pips. The relevance of this is that upon entering this triple hedge you are guaranteed to have at least 1 profitable trade. I have been experimenting with taking the profitable trade and selling off half the equities in the others. I've tried entering multiple hedges and different pricing with lower units. I have had some success experimenting with this idea and many failures. For example, I've liquidated the profit on the portfolio to double down on the loss, and if it recovers to any degree from where it was when you took the profit, you have created this "bubble". Lastly, one might also notice that if you wait for a mispricing between the pairs, you can engage in arbitrage. If theoreticalC-USD/JPY=-3 pips, then we know that the USD/JPY is overpriced by 3 pips. In which case, you can sell the USD/JPY, sell the EUR/USD, and buy the EUR/JPY and the market MUST converge the discrepacny back to ~0 pips. The problem here of course is spreads. Anyways, any thoughts on creating a probabilistic system of using this hedging strat would be appreciated.
Garret Fields
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