Assume we construct a project that ensembles several rather uncorelated strategies. Each sub-strategy generates signals for different symbols and executes trades. We assign weights for each sub strategy.
Was wondering how one would smartly assign the weights for each sub-strategy dynamically:
- just equal weight…we dont know how each sub strategy performs and building models to predict it is not worth the effort
- dynamically track the total return performance distribution per trailing window and assign weights accordingly.
- sub-strategy1: last rolling year performance contribution 10% → weight=0.1
- sub-strategy2: last rolling year performance contribution 40% → weight=0.4
- sub-strategy3: last rolling year performance contribution 50% → weight=0.5
- run a portfolio optimization on trailing window, for example HPA with risk measure Sortino. We use the matrix of the the past returns of each sub-strategy
- run an ML model to dynamically predict the ideal future weights of each sub-strategy
- other methods?
Narendra Kulkarni
Hey Santa,
this is a question thats been very dear to my heart. I have done tons of work on this topic. My final conclusion is that simplest approach is the most robust.
so i think 1/n is great or else you can do risk parity so you take in the strategy correlations. What I have found is that expected returns of the strategy cannot be predicted with any level of accuracy. but the correlations are usually more stable.
Santa24
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