Just a sample strategy, inspired and created in collaboration with Strongs
Wanted to start a collaboration thread and to spark your creativity on adding whatever ideas you're fancy to add on top of this framework.
As tips/ideas we were thinking to add:
- Add a momentum-based ETF selection for the bull days (to select best mom etf from QQQ, FDN, etc.)
- Add a momentum-based ETF selection for the bear days (to select best mom etf from TLT, TLH, etc.)
- Try adding IN&OUT switch (with wait days)
- Replace bull days with a Stock selection strategy
Below few info about the KEI indicator
Key Short—Term Economic Indicators. The Key Economic Indicators (KEI) database contains monthly and quarterly statistics (and associated statistical methodological information) for the 33 OECD member and for a selection of non—member countries on a wide variety of economic indicators, namely: quarterly national accounts, industrial production, composite leading indicators, business tendency and consumer opinion surveys, retail trade, consumer and producer prices, hourly earnings, employment/unemployment, interest rates, monetary aggregates, exchange rates, international trade and balance of payments. Indicators have been prepared by national statistical agencies primarily to meet the requirements of users within their own country. In most instances, the indicators are compiled in accordance with international statistical guidelines and recommendations. However, national practices may depart from these guidelines, and these departures may impact on comparability between countries. There is an on—going process of review and revision of the contents of the database in order to maximise the relevance of the database for short—term economic analysis.
For more information see: http://stats.oecd.org/OECDStat_Metadata/ShowMetadata.ashx?Dataset=KEI&Lang=en
Reference Data Set:
Simone Pantaleoni
Here the framework algo
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Peter Guenther
Interesting project, looking forward to the discussion. Well done, Simone Pantaleoni and Strongs!
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Strongs
Hi all guys, this is just a base from which to start. The starting idea is to also exploit the concept of in & out and the intersection of ROC by Vladimir . The LEI could actually be exploited for a dynamic selection of ETFs, essentially identifying phases of the economic cycle and then selecting groups of ETFs that perform best in that specific phase of the cycle.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Simone Pantaleoni
New version with the fixes from Vladimir 😊
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Vladimir
Simone Pantaleoni,
Completed as requested!
The second problem is that you have initialized the position in QQQ,
which is contrary to the main logic at the beginning of backtest.
To solve this. I define
To make self.mom visible on the chart changed self.MOM to self.MOMP
Here is "SIMON LesFlex" modified by Vladimir
with changes I mention above and some cosmetic changes.
Enjoy.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Strongs
The idea would be to turn the indicator like that
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.ekz. INVESTOR
First of all, great work :)
I've had some time to look at this, and I want to be sure i'm interpreting it correctly...
Questions:
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Simone Pantaleoni
Hi .ekz. ! many thanks for appreciating it. :)
Let me try to answer your questions:
Questions:
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.ekz. INVESTOR
Perfect, Simone Pantaleoni. Thanks for this.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Simone Pantaleoni
Hi guys!
As suggested, we have been working behind the scene on applying the concepts shared above about the different phases of the market. Based on that, we apply ETF-selection accordingly, out of a basket of sectorial ETFs (we kept a similar switch to shift to bond in case of possible market downturn using the leading indicator)
Some improvement on Total Return, sharpe and so on.
Feel free to work on this release, fix it in case I've made mistakes (here I rely on Vladimir as PeerReview :P ) and improve it (there's still something to optimize - but don't want to share all in once so… work on it and share your outcomes with us! :) )
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Strongs
Surely there is still a lot of work to be done, but this is definitely a great start. Levels for identifying the phases of the business cycle with associated ETF groups was presented. We await more ideas from you to improve it.
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Frank Giardina
Great stuff Guys thanks for sharing. I have a question and a comment. I have a Quandl free account have not used it much. I plugged in my key and started looking at the algo. My question is how does the self.history statement get the Quandl data to sync up with the start of the algo? i see the request for the 1400 bars, so does the Quandl request use the start date of the algo as it start retrieval date? I see the data frame adjusting to the different start dates I tried. Any clarification greatly appreciated.
My comment is i have been following a youtube channel Hedgeeye. The gentleman who runs the channel is an ex-Hedge fund manager who also uses a macro view of investing. He uses inflation and gdp rates of change for his strategy much like this algo uses the KEI data as leading indicators.. He uses ETFs like this algo but also uses different styles based on his macro view of 4 Quadrants. Depending on the Quads as he calls them he picks the ETFs and the investment style (Momentum, V:alue, High Beta, Low Beta etc.)
GrowthInflationQuad 1acceleratingslowingQuad 2acceleratingacceleratingQuad 3slowingacceleratingQuad 4slowingslowingA full explanation of his approach is on Hedgeeye.com, but here is a link to his strategy
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/77156-chart-of-the-day-what-works-in-which-quad?type=macro
Frank
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Frank Giardina
Sorry, the grid got messed up when i pasted it
Quad 1 Growth accelerating Inflation slowing
Quad 2 Growth accelerating Inflation accelerating
Quad 3 Growth slowing Inflation accelerating
Quad 4 Growth slowing Inflation slowing
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Varad Kabade
Hi Frank,
History method takes the StartDate as the anchor retrieves data before it for the requested period. Refer to the following source code.
returns the last 1400 bars of history but we have the option to pass start and end dates to the History method.
returns the historical data for custom 90 day period.
Refer to the attached backtest, which demonstrates both approaches just comment out any one.
Best,
Varad Kabade
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Frank Giardina
Varad,
Thank you for the explanation now i understand
Frank
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Frank Schikarski
Hi there,
interesting stuff!!
Here are my 2 cents:
And the results using QQQ and TLT only:
Results using an amended version of Sector ETF's:
Results using an overfitted version of Sector ETF's:
Suggestions for the way forward:
Have fun,
Frank
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Tom Penrose
Expanding on Frank's work, I've added to the number of assets allocated depending on the regime.
I've attempted to replicate an asset allocation chart that I have which tells you where you should put your money depending on the trajectory of the economy.
For example, in a scenario of better than expected growth forecasted, it suggests allocating to 37% US equities, 18% non-US equities, 25% US-fixed income, 3% non-US fixed income, 13% alternative investments, and keeping 4% cash.
This doesn't translate perfectly to this strategy but I've done a crude implementation that follows more ETF's weighted based on this chart. For the US-equities component I've maintained the same sectors suggested in the previous version, only with different weighting.
The optimal implementation of this version of the strategy in my opinion would be to use universe selection to choose the best companies in each index, rather than following a whole sector. I think this would increase performance dramatically. Unfortunately, I'm not advanced enough to do this sort of dynamic universe selection.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Simone Pantaleoni
Thanks to Frank Giardina and Tom Penrose for the good work and for moving the thread forward!
You're going on the exact direction I was meant to drive this discussion, when we've started it :)
I've been a bit busy lately on other projects, but next step will be exactly as Tom outlined, about stock-selection to pick up best 4-5 stocks for each sector.
Challenge there is to make the code decently quick, so I think a quite strict pre-selection of stocks will be needed
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Frank Giardina
I think we got the wrong Frank, I made some comments and certainly want to help but Frank Schikarski did more meaningful work with his post.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Simone Pantaleoni
Apologies :P Tagged the wrong Frank and cannot amend it now unfortunately :) anyway, better a compliment more, than one less isn't it? :P
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Frank Giardina
From the comments above from Frank Schikarski about using the High Yield Spread, attached is I think the FRED alternative dataset he is talking about. If someone can confirm that would be great. I did not see another dataset that fit the description
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Vladimir
Simone Pantaleoni,
Try this one
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Vladimir
Simone Pantaleoni,
Here is a backtest for OECD/KEI_LOLITOAA_KOR_ST_M from my June 2021 research.
I'd better chat with you in this thread.
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Vladimir
Simone Pantaleoni,
Here is a backtest for OECD "OECD/KEI_LOLITOAA_JPN_ST_M" from my June 2021 research.
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Frank Giardina
This is a work in progress. I cloned one of Vlad's earlier versions. I really like this algo for a macro view of investing. This version can probably be done in less code, average python coder here. I wanted to see what the economic stage/cycles have been since 2012 based on the kei strategy and then see how different ETFs performed in that cycle. I wanted to make it flexible enough to add and remove ETFs . Next i wanted to output the results to a comma separated log file so i could import to excel to see which ETFs performed the best. Any feedback / improvements greatly appreciated. One issue i am trying to fix is to add the number of days that a stage lasted, can't seem to get the python date functions to work (probably me)
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Simone Pantaleoni
Frank Giardina Thanks for joining the Team Frank! :)
I've created different versions of this strategy - the one below is what I'm using live:
PSR and DD are the best parts of this strategy in my opinion :)
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Frank Giardina
Very impressive, if anyone wants to conference call or collaborate and kick around some ideas, always up for that. I plan on looking at my results and trying some different approaches. Especially in the area of sub stages within the stage and how to speed the indicator. I also want to start using this in 2022
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JSO 2045
Hi guys. I'm pretty new to this so apologies for not having that much in the way of useful contribution to this conversation. Has anyone found a way to alleviate/offset 2022's downturn for this strategy (and a lot of others), or is the freakish nature of what's happened not something that can be effectively accounted for? Main reason for asking is that the low drawdown/volatiltiy of this strategy seemed like a big strength but has obviously taken a hit this year
All I can think of would be adding small hedges against each of the orders made by the algo in each of its “stages.” I will give it a try but am keen to hear what other peoples' thoughts are :)
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Frank Giardina
Not sure what to add , but there is another OECD dataset from the Federal Reserve site FRED https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ called USALOLITONOSTSAM. My understanding is this dataset is US only as opposed to the QUANDL dataset used in the algo. I have not been able to figure out how to get Quantconnect to use this data set instead. If i could figure out how to use that one instead I would. The two datasets are 90% correlated. In the meantime I am using a python notebook in Google colab to do the analysis. The Quandl indicator has indicated we are in a decline since April the FRED indicator says since March. I have noticed that with the FRED data they do go back and adjust the data so that does throw things off at times. If there is an interest in the notebook let me know and i will copy it in the post.
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Simone Pantaleoni
Hi Frank and JSO,The one you've picked, as you said, is US-only leading indicators - there're plenty available indeed (roughly one per country), but I would suggest to use the oecd or the world oneIn order instead to limit drawdown during 2022, just switch to cash (or “BIL” or “SHV”) when the TLT correlation to SPY is positive.Enjoy it
ps. if you like my comment, drop me some points/likes ;)
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Simone Pantaleoni
Just forgot to mention - I'm always open to collaborations - I'm available on Telegram or Discord (but I would prefer the first one, since I'm not a very heavy Discord user) :)
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JSO 2045
Simone Pantaleoni I like that idea of using the correlation, will try to give it a go. Finding a valid solution to this specific problem would help loads of strategies in the forums as well as this one. Could potentially even have a list of traditional hedges against the stock market and select the one with the lowest correlation across the last month (or something like that)
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
Peter Guenther
Great job again, Simone Pantaleoni and Strongs, for getting this discussion started!
Sorry, time resources have been a bit tight. Anyway, I am currently musing about whether this could be used to trade FX pairs. The OECD data gives you international information about the comparative strengths of various economies. You got your interest rates, GDP growth, inflation figures, unemployment rates and so on, Based on this, one might be able to bet on one currency vs the other and/or to validate or refute existing trends in currency pairs. Hopefully, I can put something together over the next few weeks for the major currency pairs.
The time lag of the data (up to one month?) could be an issue for live trading – to what extent could be tested by simulating lagged data usage. If it is a substantive issue, the question will be whether more up-to-date datasets could be identified, such as by getting the data directly from the national bureaus of statistics or similar.
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Simone Pantaleoni
Hi Peter Guenther
Well spotted: publication delay can affect live performances, so to avoid so I've been “reading” the KEI value on the 15th of each month, basically taking into account the publication date instead of the “validity” date
About the FX Pair, that is actually another great idea, and should be rather easy to realize, even tough I would be curious to see if that is able to generate alpha since carry trade is also “a thing” - perhaps a better idea would be to pair trade Country-ETFs based on the related KEI strength
ps. Still need to get in touch with you privately Peter - how can I reach out to you?
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Peter Guenther
That's great, Simone Pantaleoni. I will definitely share as soon as I've got a first version of the FX algo.
My contact:
The material on this website is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation or endorsement for any security or strategy, nor does it constitute an offer to provide investment advisory services by QuantConnect. In addition, the material offers no opinion with respect to the suitability of any security or specific investment. QuantConnect makes no guarantees as to the accuracy or completeness of the views expressed in the website. The views are subject to change, and may have become unreliable for various reasons, including changes in market conditions or economic circumstances. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. You should consult with an investment professional before making any investment decisions.
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